Is a win always a win?
State Policing might finally be here. Also, Tinubuās security scorecard has a few commas; the FG wants to let the poor breathe, and 100 free TV channels are coming your way soon.
Good morning, Big Brains. I know I say this a lot, but I really canāt wait to leave this school. Not only is it taking a toll on my health, but I also smell like Iru all the time now. My only motivation is that itās for science. Anything for science. Letās get into it.
- Orame
Word count: 2,602
Reading time: 12 minutes
In the madhouse that is Nigeria, many things go down within the week, and it can be difficult to grasp them all. This edition of The Big Daily newsletter cuts through the noise and sifts through the debris to bring you the four biggest news stories that shaped the week.
Letās get into this weekās Big-4:
State policing is finally here, but at what cost?
Tinubu swears Nigeria is safer under him
FG has decided to pay dust to the IMFās advice
Nigeria just launched 100 free TV channels
State policing is finally here, but at what cost?
Every firstborn knows what itās like being held responsible for something you have absolutely no control over. Governors say thatās exactly how they feel about their statesā security. It looks like their complaints will be coming to an end soon.
On Thursday, June 11, 2026, the Senate passed a bill for state police to a second reading. days earlier, the House of Representatives passed its version, with 289 lawmakers voting in support and none against. If both chambers agree on identical wording and the required two-thirds majority is reached, this will be the most significant restructuring of Nigerian policing since 1999.
This isnāt an idea cooked up overnight. Governors have been asking for this for years. In 2025, the governor of Zamfara State, Dauda Lawal, said that he knows exactly where bandit leaders hide but canāt act because security operatives in his state take orders only from Abuja.
Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum has made similar complaints over the years, repeatedly arguing that governors are held responsible for insecurity but lack the authority to deploy security personnel directly when attacks occur.
The Police Bill, if it becomes law, would allow states to establish, fund, and operate police forces alongside the federal police.
The pros of state policing are often weighed against its cons; the most prominent merit is faster security response time, while the greatest fear is that state governors might abuse their newfound powers.
But the bill doesnāt hand governors all the power; it also establishes a Nigeria Police Council to handle the appointment of the Inspector-General and state Commissioners of Police. Also, if a state commissioner believes a governorās directive is unlawful, the matter goes to that Council, whose decision is final, preventing governors from weaponising the police.
Good as this sounds, it comes at an unavoidable cost that states have to bear, and word is, it costs an arm and a leg to set up a Police force. According to a BusinessDay analysis, a medium-sized state with five million people would need close to ā¦50 billion just to recruit, train, and equip 15,000 officers, even before a single barracks, patrol vehicle, or armoury is built. A state with ten million people could face over ā¦98 billion in startup costs alone.
Given the way Nigerian states function currently, itād be a curious miracle to see them afford this chunk of money. A 2025 report by BudgIT found that at least 21 states rely on Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations for over 70% of their total revenue, and 31 states depend on federal allocations for at least 80% of their recurrent revenue. We wonder how theyād squeeze out the funds needed for this venture.
Itās expected for Nigerians to be sceptical about the concept, but state policing isnāt unusual. The US, Canada, Germany and India all run decentralised policing systems in which local authorities have significant control over security in their jurisdictions.
In the US, federal agencies handle crimes that cross state lines or touch national security, while state and local police handle all everyday, community-level crimes.
But copying another countryās model is the easy part; making it work is where things get complicated.
A 2025 study carried out at Taraba State University, comparing Nigeria to the US, Canada and India, found that decentralised policing works in places with ārobust institutional frameworks, legal safeguards, and financial capacity,ā conditions the paper says are ālargely absent in Nigeriaā right now.
Former Minister of Education, Dr Obiageli Ezekwesili, in a public memorandum, argued that state policing alone will not solve Nigeriaās insecurity crisis. In her view, creating state police without institutional restructuring is simply treating a symptom rather than the underlying disease.
Thatās why the current debate isnāt really about whether state policing is good or bad. Itās about whether Nigeria has put in place enough guardrails to make it work. Can states afford it? Will the law be potent enough to prevent governors from abusing it? Can recruitment, training and oversight be standardised across 36 different police systems?
Those are the questions lawmakers will have to answer in the months ahead. If they get it right, state police could become one of the biggest security reforms since Nigeriaās return to democracy. If they get it wrong, the country could end up spending billions without solving the problem that started this conversation in the first place. Weāre curious to know what you think.
Tinubu swears Nigeria is safer under him
A man who hasnāt paid rent for months doesnāt get to boast about how much money he has now than ten years ago. The thing is, itās happening, and President Tinubu is that man.
Speaking at his 2026 Democracy Day address on June 12, Tinubu said terrorism-related deaths have dropped by 81% since 2015, with intelligence upgrades and military operations turning the tide against insurgency. He also claimed over 13,000 terrorists were neutralised in the past year and that more than 124,000 fighters and dependants have surrendered since 2023 through Operation Safe Corridor.
Crazy as it seems, this stat holds up. Using data from the Global Terrorism Index, we found that 750 deaths were recorded in 2025, compared with 4,095 in 2015, representing an 81.6% decrease.
That comparison leaves out some important context; as of 2015, Nigeria was caught in the peak of the Boko Haram insurgency. Also, the same Global Terrorism Index shows Nigeria recorded one of the highest increases in terrorism deaths globally in 2025, with attacks rising from 120 incidents in 2024 to 171 in 2025. It also shows that Nigeria is slipping back to 4th place globally for terrorism impact after improving to 8th under the Buhari administration.
Comparing today to the deadliest years of Boko Haramās insurgency makes for a flattering chart. It says nothing about whether this year is better than last year, because apparently it isnāt.
The claim that 13,000 terrorists were neutralised has no independently verifiable source. There is no transparent methodology behind the number, and independent conflict trackers like Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Global Terrorism Index donāt confirm it either.
The 124,000 surrender figure also appears to predate Tinubuās administration. That number traces back to Operation Safe Corridorās cumulative total since the programme launched in 2015 under Buhari, not anything that ābegan in 2023ā as Tinubu implied.
While the president was comparing todayās figures to 2015, many communities are still dealing with severe security challenges. In Magamin Didde, Zamfara State, 39 elders were reportedly kidnapped while trying to negotiate access to farmland with a bandit leader. The kidnappers are now demanding ā¦100 million for their release.
In Zurmi, also in Zamfara, farmers reportedly abandoned their fields after a wave of kidnappings and killings. Data from the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) showed that banditry attacks killed at least 2,266 people in the first half of 2025, compared to 1,083 during the same period in 2024.
This is what makes conversations about security statistics so complicated. Tinubuās comparison with 2015 appears broadly accurate and reflects how far Nigeria has come since the peak of Boko Haramās insurgency, but for many Nigerians, security isnāt measured against a decade ago. Itās measured against what is happening in their communities right now.
A country can make progress against one threat while still struggling with others, and thatās the context any discussion about security needs to include.
The government is paying dust to the IMFās advice
Sometimes, the best way to handle unwanted advice is to offer a polite āIāll think about itā and go about your day, completely forgetting you even heard it.
The Federal Government dismissed reports on Wednesday, June 17, that it plans to add new taxes on fuel and telecoms. The rumours started after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, advising the government to tax citizens more on transport and calls. In response, the Ministry of Finance stated that the IMFās ideas ādo not amount to government policy and are not binding on Nigeria.ā
The Ministry also confirmed the Value Added Tax (VAT) waiver on petroleum products remains in force and that the telecoms excise duty introduced before 2023 has already been repealed under the new tax laws.
The IMF, in the report, said that Nigeria is struggling with very low revenues and massive debt-servicing costs. To prevent a major financial crisis, the fund recommended activating the 5% fuel tax to boost government income. This extra money would help the country pay off its debts without relying entirely on unstable oil revenues.
The underlying issue, like the IMF rightly pointed out, remains a structural revenue crisis. The IMF projects Nigeriaās tax-to-GDP ratio to rise to 10.2% in 2026, up from 9.5%, still well below the 15% benchmark that the IMF and World Bank consider necessary to fund core government functions.
The problem isnāt that Nigeria isnāt collecting money. Non-oil sectors are actually growing, with non-oil exports hitting a record $6.1 billion. The real issue is where the money goes. Debt payments alone will swallow ā¦15.52 trillion in 2026, taking up 45% of everything the government expects to earn.
Nigeria clearly needs to earn more to match its spending, and according to experts, the country is still leaving easy money on the table. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), Nigeriaās tourism sector contributes roughly 3% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), generating about $5 billion. Analysts believe this number could be much higher with better infrastructure, security and investment.
Similar arguments have been made about solid minerals, agriculture exports and the digital economy, sectors frequently identified as potential sources of long-term revenue growth.
That is what makes the IMFās recommendation so politically sensitive. The debate isnāt simply about whether Nigerians should pay more taxes. Itās about whether the government has done enough to reduce waste and expand alternative income sources before returning to citizens and businesses for additional revenue.
For now, the government insists there are no plans to introduce new taxes on fuel or telecommunications. Whether Nigerians accept that assurance may depend less on what officials are saying today and more on how previous government promises have played out.
The government has gifted Nigerians 100 free TV channels
If youāre anything like us, youāve bought a second item you didnāt want purely to qualify for free shipping, only to spend the next week wondering if you made the right choice. Welcome to the club. The governmentās latest free offering aims to be a much more reliable win you wonāt regret.
The Federal Government officially launched FreeTV on Wednesday, June 17, offering over 100 channels, including dedicated Yoruba, Hausa, and Igbo-language content, as part of its long-delayed Digital Switch Over (DSO) program to transition from analogue to digital broadcasting.
The platform runs on a hybrid satellite-and-mobile model via the Nigerian Communications Satellite (NigComSat), and officials say no monthly subscription is required. The final analogue switch-off is scheduled for December 31, 2028.
This launch marks the latest chapter in a project Nigeria has been trying to complete for nearly two decades. The country committed to digital migration in 2006, missed its original 2015 deadline and has spent roughly ā¦60 billion over 17 years trying to move from analogue broadcasting to a fully digital system.
The Broadcasting Organisations of Nigeria (BON) has formally challenged the current rollout, arguing that what is being launched does not align with the digital switchover model outlined in the legally gazetted 2012 framework and is instead a satellite distribution platform.
While the service is free to access once connected, households will still need to purchase equipment for installation. Basic decoders for the digital terrestrial signal are reportedly priced between ā¦15,000 and ā¦25,000.
However, BON has specifically raised concerns about the governmentās chosen satellite delivery model. This method requires a dedicated dish, a decoder, and professional installation. These additional expenses fall on the people the government claims to be assisting.
The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) has said it wants the rollout to be āself-sustaining, with no further subsidies for set-top boxes,ā a position that has raised questions about affordability for the low-income households the project is supposed to serve.
Nigerians are sceptical because theyāve been paying steadily rising prices for the alternative. DStvās Premium package now costs ā¦44,500 a month, up from ā¦37,000 just over a year ago, with consumer groups accusing MultiChoice of charging Nigerians more while cutting prices for South African subscribers. An estimated 243,000 Nigerians have already been priced out of pay-TV subscriptions entirely. A genuinely accessible, free alternative would matter to many households.
Still, some Nigerians are approaching the announcement cautiously because of previous high-profile government projects that failed to deliver on their promises. Nigeria Air, for example, was unveiled with a demonstration flight in May 2023 but never operated a commercial route and was formally abandoned by May 2024, after consuming over ā¦3 billion in public funds.
If FreeTV delivers on its promise, millions of Nigerians could gain access to news, education and entertainment without the burden of monthly subscription fees. At a time when many households are cutting back on spending, that would be a meaningful win.
Questions remain about infrastructure, rollout costs, and whether the project can succeed where previous government initiatives have struggled, but those questions can only be answered over time.
For now, Nigerians have every reason to hope this works. A free, accessible television platform is the kind of public project that can make a real difference if implemented properly. After years of difficult economic news, Nigerians deserve a win, and FreeTV has the chance to become one.
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Good morning, Big Brains. Donāt come for me, but it was only last week that I found out that Nigeria didnāt qualify for the World Cup. In the meantime, Iām inching closer and closer to my project defence, and Iām so excited. Letās get into it.
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