GRWM to break a generational curse

Is Nigeria’s fuel scarcity problem about to be solved?

Good morning, Big Brains. I bless the day I bought my generator. The transformer in my area, or whatever gives people light, has been damaged by rain. In big 2025? I can’t believe this is a real country. Please put me in your prayers because I don’t know how I’ll survive till salary day with the amount of fuel I’m buying every day.

- Margaret

Word count: ~ 1,000
Reading time ~ 5 mins

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Let’s get into today’s edition:

• Nigeria’s fuel scarcity problem may be coming to an end

• The UK’s newly proposed abortion law is sparking controversy

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The Big Deal

Nigeria’s fuel scarcity problem may be coming to an end

Aliko Dangote is a man of many interests, and according to experts, his newest trick is to solve Nigeria’s age-long fuel shortage problem.

According to Development Economist and Policy Analyst, Professor Kenny Ife, the Dangote Refinery’s latest fuel distribution strategy is a “transformational move” that could change everything about the country’s petroleum sector.

If you’re wondering how Dangote could end up becoming Nigeria’s saviour, Professor Ife explained it to Arise News on Tuesday, June 17. Dangote’s big plan is to get fuel directly to the people who need it most (petrol stations, manufacturers, telecommunication companies, the aviation sector, and other major users) with free logistics support.

Professor Ife also added that the refinery’s latest move will reduce petrol prices, improve fuel supply nationwide, and improve transparency in the petroleum sector.

Why is this a big deal?

If Nigeria had a “How to be Nigerian” tutorial, at least 30 pages would be dedicated to getting used to fuel scarcity. The country has reportedly been dealing with this problem as far back as 1984, and not much has changed in 2025. At this point, it almost feels like a generational curse.

Despite being Africa’s largest oil-producing country, the forces working against Nigeria have made it 50% reliant on fuel importation. But for the first time in a long time, things are actually looking good for Nigeria’s petroleum sector. In the first quarter of 2025, our petrol import bill dropped by 54%, and guess who helped the country pull that number? Dangote Refinery.

In 2016, John Ashbourne, an economist at Capital Economics, predicted that even if all four of Nigeria’s local refineries were working at full capacity, they’d still only cover a quarter of the country’s fuel demand. But clearly, something has shifted in 2025, and Dangote is behind it.

The refinery’s full capacity is 650,000 barrels per day, and Nigeria’s daily consumption was estimated to be 428,000 barrels per day. With the daily consumption problem considerably handled, experts like Professor Kenny Ife and Ibukun Philips believe that the Dangote Refinery is positioned to solve the scarcity problem too.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Rivers State Chapter, believes in what Dangote is building, describing his move as “bold and strategic.”

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), on the other hand, is not on board with Dangote’s idea. This is because it fears that the refinery’s plan to go into distribution could create a monopoly that would put many people out of jobs and generally disrupt the balance of the petroleum value chain.

“Refining should be handled by refineries, storage by depots, logistics by transporters, marketing by marketers, and retail by retailers,” the National President of PETROAN, Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, said to the press in a recent interview.

“Once one company controls everything, it disrupts this balance and threatens the survival of other stakeholders,” he continued.

But more experts and analysts say that PETROAN has nothing to fear because the distribution plan will only promote competition (by reducing the influence of middlemen), not stifle it. More than that, they believe it’ll give people in rural Nigeria a fighting chance, seeing as they have to pay extra due to transportation costs.

No matter what side of the divide you’re on, Dangote’s plan seems solid at face value, and seeing as it’s pretty much in motion, Nigerians might just have to watch and see.

The UK’s newly proposed abortion law is sparking controversy

If you’re not pro-choice, you might find the United Kingdom’s proposed abortion laws a little triggering.

On Tuesday, June 17, members of the UK parliament voted in favour of ending the 163-year-old law that legalises the prosecution of women in England and Wales who choose to terminate their pregnancies.

The current law says that a woman can be sentenced to life imprisonment for terminating a pregnancy without the approval of two doctors or after 24 weeks.

The revised law has received 242 votes in the parliament, and if it survives the next rounds of voting, women will no longer be prosecuted for ending their pregnancy, regardless of the gestational stage.

While abortion in England and Wales is still a criminal offence under the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act, the 1967 Abortion Act created some sort of compromise by legalising terminations before 24 weeks, but only under strict conditions. Abortions beyond that are only allowed if the mother’s life is at risk or there’s a serious fetal medical condition. The rules were slightly relaxed during COVID-19 to allow the use of abortion pills at home within the first 10 weeks, but nothing beyond that.

The amendment has triggered reactions from anti-abortion groups like the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children, which called it “the greatest threat to unborn babies in decades.” But 50 organisations, including abortion providers, medical colleges and women’s rights groups, are backing it because of how the current law endangers women who have had miscarriages and stillbirths.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also seems to be in support of the amendment because he said women deserve the right to a “safe and legal abortion.”

Right now, the yays outweigh the nays, and the law will likely be amended.

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This Week’s Big Question

On a scale of one to ten, how happy are you to be a Nigerian and why?

Nworie’s response - “Scale? I won't get on that scale to begin with.”

You can also share your response here, and if it’s as interesting as Nworie’s, we’ll feature it in the next edition.

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