Good morning, Big Brains. Full disclosure, I’m already making Christmas plans. I couldn’t get my Christmas PJs last year, but this year, I’m going all out. If I don’t focus on happy thoughts, I’d be fixated on the nonsense things going on in this country.
- Margaret
Word count: ~ 1,300
Reading time ~ 8 mins
Let’s get into today’s edition:
FG says Nigeria’s debt is under control, but economists disagree
Nigeria might not implement the 5% fuel surcharge
The Big Deal
FG says Nigeria’s debt is under control, but economists disagree
If a Nigerian politician tells you today is Wednesday, you’re better off asking Pinocchio for confirmation. The Tinubu-led administration has been feeding us some super stories lately, and as God would have it, another episode has dropped, and it’s about one of Nigeria’s most pressing subjects: debt.
On Monday, September 8, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, announced that Nigeria’s ₦149.39 trillion debt shouldn’t be giving any of us sleepless nights because President Tinubu is keeping things “responsible” and pouring the money into “productive investments.” Finance Minister Wale Edun also backed up the claim, insisting that this administration is borrowing money with common sense.
According to these finance bros, our debt level is so good that the National Assembly has already approved the president’s borrowing plan for the rest of 2025 and 2026. That includes $21.19 billion in foreign loans, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, a $65 million grant, ₦757 billion in domestic borrowing, plus an extra $2 billion through a bond.
Abbas, in a bid to probably convince Nigerians, explained that these piling debts can “engender growth.”
Edun also swears that our debt service-to-revenue ratio is “acceptable by global standards.” But that doesn’t exactly align with what economists are saying.
Why is this a big deal?
It’s easy to sell regular Nigerians a dream if you wrap it in big English, but Economist and SPM Professional Paul Alaje broke it down in an interview with Arise News on Tuesday, September 09. According to him, we’re living on borrowed time.
We’re not sure what “global standards” Edun is referring to, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has found evidence that when debt reaches about 40% of the size of a developing country’s economy (GDP), the risk of running into serious debt problems usually starts to rise.
Wale Edun himself has confirmed that ours is currently at 38.8% after rebasing. To make it look like such a great number, he compared it to the 60% benchmark set specifically for developed countries, which Nigeria is obviously not.
In reality, we’re about 2% away from hitting the dangerous debt point. But that’s not the worst part. It’s how much of our revenue is used to service debt. In May 2025, BudgIT reported that Nigeria was spending over 80% of government revenue on debt servicing. In July, FG said the figure has dropped to less than 50%, which still leaves minimal funds for important sectors like health and education.
Alaje also pointed out that the borrowed money isn’t translating into real development. If it were, Nigerians would see solid infrastructure and growth beyond Abuja and Lagos. Instead, the debt seems to be piling up with little impact on people’s lives. If things continue this way, Alaje warns total debt could rise to ₦200 trillion by 2027, and debt servicing might climb up to 90% of national revenue.
So what does this mean for regular Nigerians? The more money the government uses to pay off debt, the less is left for hospitals, schools, electricity, or job-creating projects. The government would also likely intensify its taxing efforts on already struggling citizens to increase revenue. We can already see this in the 4% Free on Board levy (a charge applied to the value of imported goods) that was introduced in August, making cars more expensive. We can also give you at least 20 possible effects, but judging by Nigeria’s history, the reality would probably be worse.
We hope we’ve been able to convince and not confuse you that the federal government’s claims are just paper-based and not the reality. God bless Nigeria!
Nigeria might not implement the 5% fuel surcharge
It’s been a little over a week since the news about a 5% fuel surcharge went viral and pissed Nigerians off. If you’re one of the people already planning to break a few bottles on you-know-who’s head, you might want to reconsider.
On Tuesday, September 09, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, appeared on Channels TV to clear the air. According to him, there’s no evidence that suggests that the 5% surcharge is going to kick off in January 2026, and definitely not out of the blue.
But Nigerians, especially the Trade Union Congress (TUC), are not exactly impressed by that. The union has threatened to strike if the surcharge isn’t scrapped. Oyedele, however, thinks they’re coming for the wrong people because the surcharge has been around since 2007, so if TUC wanted to protest, they should’ve done it back then.
For now, he’s asking Nigerians to calm down and be patient, promising that Tinubu’s reform will eventually deliver results.
At the moment, we’d advise you to take Oyedele’s words with a pinch of salt, because upon the approval of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, this surcharge will take effect.
We can’t think of a worse time to even consider the possibility of another tax, especially since the country still hasn’t recovered from the harsh effects of the president’s reforms. We’ve chested fuel subsidy removal, naira floating, new taxes, and rising inflation. But somehow, the Tinubu-led administration still thinks it’s a good idea to resurrect a 2007 act proposed under different economic circumstances without plans to ease the burden on its poor citizens.
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This Week’s Big Question
“Which ministry in Nigeria do you have the most beef with?”
Tomiwa’s response - “I have beef with all the ministeries. I don’t think we have a functioning ministry in this country.”
You can also share your response here, and if it’s as interesting as Tomiwa’s, we’ll feature it in the next edition.
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Bring back shame
Nigeria is the biggest weapon fashioned against your health, and we’re not even exaggerating. Yesterday, we walked you through everything you need to know about a planned nationwide strike by the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG). Today, we bring more unpleasant news.