It’s not girl math, it’s Tinubu math
Tinubu’s administration has a thing for spending more than it earns
Good morning, Big Brains. If you’re having a good day, I’m just here to tell you that your president is currently eating croissants in France while the rest of us are dealing with the consequences of his actions. It is well!
- Margaret
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Reading time ~ 5 mins
Let’s get into today’s edition:
Tinubu’s administration has a thing for spending more than it earns
Our president is taking the “minimal work, maximum enjoyment” concept seriously
The Big Deal
Tinubu’s administration has a thing for spending more than it earns
It’s clear to every Nigerian adult that the economy was fighting for its life in 2024. But now, we know why it was losing that battle.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) finally decided to bless us with the Quarterly Economic Reports for 2024, and it turns out the Federal Government was deep in its big spender era. It spent ₦21.5 trillion in 2024, even though it only made ₦8.55 trillion in revenue. If the math isn’t mathing, that’s because it’s Tinubu math. The million-naira question: “Where did the money come from?” We wish it was some sort of miracle, but it’s literally just debt.
That’s like earning ₦85,500 in a month but spending ₦215,000 — something has to give, and in this case, it’s Nigeria’s already struggling economy. The original plan was to keep the budget deficit at ₦9.16 trillion, but by the time the national bills hit the roof, the gap had widened to ₦12.95 trillion, a 41% jump. And this isn’t even a new problem. In 2023, the deficit was ₦12.85 trillion. Instead of fixing it, the Tinubu-led administration made it worse.
Most of this money didn’t go into things that would improve the lives of Nigerians. 75% of government spending in 2024 went into keeping the government itself running — salaries, debt payments, and other recurring expenses. That left only 17% for capital projects ( things like new roads, improving electricity, or fixing hospitals). The remaining 7.77% was spent on “transfers,” a vague category that often includes government bailouts, subsidies, or allocations that aren’t immediately clear to the average Nigerian. In simple terms, the government’s priorities weren’t exactly giving “for the people, by the people.”
The only tiny silver lining? The government made slightly more money towards the end of the year, thanks to increased revenue from oil, taxes, and other sources. This helped reduce the deficit by a small margin in the last quarter, but it’s nowhere near enough to solve the problem.
Why is this a big deal?
You probably don’t want a repetition of 2024’s events, but we’ll hold your hands while we say this: we are already walking down the same ol’ road.
Nigeria is currently spending its biggest budget in the last 65 years: ₦54.99 trillion. That’s a 56.89% increase from 2024’s budget (₦35.05 trillion). But this budget is problematic for many reasons, one of them being the ₦16.3 trillion allocated to debt servicing for this year alone.
The president promised that his administration would be more fiscally responsible in 2025, but it’s not exactly looking like it, especially when education, healthcare, and skills development are only getting a combined allocation of ₦5.7 trillion.
Rather than relying on borrowing in 2025, the government has set an ambitious goal of increasing national revenue by 123.19%, the final boss of unrealistic KPIs. To do that, they plan to generate more money from taxes and foreign investments. While they might not hit the foreign investment KPI, best believe they’ll be going harder at taxing Nigerians, especially with Tinubu’s approved tax reform bill.
Economists from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) still don’t believe FG’s revenue goal is realistic. And if they’re right , Nigeria will end up spending more than it earns in 2025, which might put an even bigger tax burden on its citizens.
Our president is taking the “minimal work, maximum enjoyment” concept seriously
President Tinubu travelled to Paris on Wednesday for what’s being called a two-week “working visit” to assess Q1’s progress and plan for the future. We wish we could do a Q1 review in the City of Love too, but only Tinubu can pull that off in Tinubu’s economy.
According to Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, this Parisian getaway is a strategic retreat to evaluate midterm achievements and plan for his administration’s second anniversary.
While in Paris, the President will reportedly review ongoing reforms and engage in strategic planning to “deepen national development priorities.” Onanuga assured Nigerians that Tinubu will remain fully engaged with his team and continue overseeing governance remotely.
This isn’t Tinubu’s first trip to Paris this year. In February, he made a private stop before heading to the African Union Summit in Ethiopia. During that visit, he had discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron about trade partnerships and investment opportunities. At this point, France might as well give him honorary residency.
We hope to finally see the results of these countless “strategic meetings” in 2025.
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