Is it real or fugazi?

Nigeria’s inflation just dropped by about 10%

Good morning, Big Brains. Nigeria confuses me every single day. Math has never been my strongest subject but Tinubu math seems to be more advanced than the one I know. You’d probably be confused too when you’re done reading today’s edition.

- Margaret

Word count: ~ 1, 000
Reading time ~ 3 mins

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Let’s get into today’s edition:

• Nigeria’s inflation just dropped by about 10%

• Aisha Yesufu isn’t buying what David Hundeyin is selling

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The Big Deal

Nigeria’s inflation just dropped by about 10%

It seems like the forces working against Nigeria are slowly repenting; at least, that’s what the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) latest update suggests.

According to NBS, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 24.48% in January 2025, a big decrease compared to the 34.80% recorded in December 2024. But before you start celebrating and pricing Apple gadgets, let’s do a quick reality check—the drop isn’t because prices magically reduced overnight, it’s all thanks to a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which means that inflation has been updated to better reflect Nigeria’s current economic realities .

The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, broke the news on Tuesday, February 18, in Abuja, explaining that the rebasing involved updating the reference year and modifying the basket of goods and services used to track inflation. In English, this means that the government has changed how they count things, making the numbers look less scary.

Urban inflation was recorded at 26.09%, while rural inflation stood at 22.15%. Meanwhile, food inflation, the biggest headache for a majority of Nigerians, dropped to 26.08% from the 39.84% reported in December. The NBS insists this rebasing will provide a more accurate picture of inflation going forward, but if your salary still doesn’t last till the end of the month or your grocery bill hasn’t dropped, you might be wondering what exactly has changed – we’ll explain in a minute.

Why is this a big deal?

On paper, a 10% drop in inflation sounds like fantastic news. A country struggling with skyrocketing prices finally getting a breather? Bring, please! But that’s not totally the case because Nigerians haven’t started seeing the effects of this "improvement."

The downward movement of inflation doesn’t necessarily mean prices are going down, it just means they’re increasing at a slower rate. In simpler terms, the NBS just told us that things are still expensive, only they’re not doing so as quickly as they used to. In case you still haven’t connected the dots, this just means we’re not necessarily moving forward, but we’re going backwards at a slower rate. We’re not sure if this is a win in anyone’s book.

Let’s not forget that President Tinubu promised to bring inflation down to 15%. We’ve seen a big drop, but we’re still a long way from that goal. The next few months will also go a long way in determining whether this “drop” the government is optimizing for will look good only on paper or in real life. Anyone can drop numbers, but if this year’s reduced inflation isn’t reducing citizens' cost of living, is there really a point?

Only time and the cost of rice will tell whether this “reduction” is real or fugazi. In the mean time, Nigerians will continue doing the mental gymnastics required to survive in an economy where numbers on a government report don’t always translate to reality.

Aisha Yesufu isn’t buying what David Hundeyin is selling

We’ve never imagined that USAID would be involved in never-ending controversies, but here we are.

Back story: If you’re on Tinubu’s internet, you most likely already know that an investigative journalist, David Hundeyin, woke up one morning and dropped controversial “receipts” on the internet. The journalist claimed that the Bring Back Our Girls (BBOG) movement was on USAID’s payroll, allegedly working to “bring down” Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. But Aisha Yesufu, co-convener of BBOG and activist, isn’t having any of it.

In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, she denied the claims and clarified certain details. According to her, BBOG was neither an NGO nor a Civil Society Organization (CSO) but a movement of outraged Nigerians demanding justice for the kidnapped Chibok girls. She made it clear that the movement has never taken a dime from external sources, let alone a foreign agency. She also added that the movement has no registered bank account to start with.

To make her point, the activist narrated how some people who swore the Chibok abduction was staged became victims of terrorism and insecurity themselves. In her words, “Some of the people who said there was no Chibok girls’ abduction have paid the ransom. Unfortunately, some of them have died”.

Yesufu also pointed out that she didn’t support former President Jonathan because of his “shenanigans” and she has maintained the same energy with Buhari and now, Tinubu. In her eyes, no administration has lived up to expectations.

She also added that her activism is not funded in any way. She doesn’t rely on grants or political contracts because she’s “financially independent.”

In a saner country, we’d be focused on how the government’s inadequacies have made Nigeria reliant on foreign aid, and we’d probably have a realistic conversation about what life is now going to look like for the millions of Nigerian citizens who rely on USAID’s HIV, malaria and tuberculosis reduction projects but hey, this is Nigeria.

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This Week’s Big Question

“If you could meet one Nigerian politician (dead or alive), who would it be?”

Amara’s response - “I want to say hello to Sanni Abacha but I want him to be alive. This guy acquired more than $1.5 billion and didn't even have the opportunity to spend it. I need him to come back and spend 37.6% of the money on me. He is my ticket to reaping where I didn't sow.”

You can also share your response here, and if it’s as interesting Amara’s , we’ll feature it in the next edition.

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Food Prices Still High But Rebased Inflation Good For Investors – Alaje: Economist Paul Alaje says the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) new way of calculating inflation might boost investor confidence, but it won’t change the fact that Nigerians are still struggling with high food prices.

Reps Demand Swift Justice To Discourage Gender-Based Violence: The House of Representatives has called for swift justice for victims of gender-based violence, stating that timely rulings will help deter the crime.

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