Best in poverty

Africa is most likely going to be home to the world’s poorest people by 2030

Dec 06, 2024

Good morning, Big Brains. I’ve been thinking about the most casual way to tell you that I’m going on leave and The Big Daily will be slowing down for the year after next week. I guess this is as casual as it gets. I’ll miss you, but you’ll be in good hands till I resume.

- Margaret

Word count: ~ 1, 000
Reading time ~ 4 mins

Let’s get into today’s edition:

Poverty is becoming too comfortable in Africa
Nigerian students are saying toodles to the country and its economy

The Big Deal

Poverty is becoming too comfortable in Africa

Big Brains, we come bearing bad news. A new report from the World Bank shows that Africa might be winning the “Best in Poverty” trophy. And it’s not because the continent doesn’t have potential—it’s because of systemic issues that make poverty feel like an inheritance passed down from generation to generation.

Currently, Africa hosts 60% of the world’s extremely poor population. That’s already bad enough, but this latest World Bank report says that if things don’t change, the figure will climb to 87% by 2030. The simple translation is that our continent won’t just be struggling if things don’t change; it’ll win the global poverty title race.

Why is this a big deal?

We looked into the numbers in the World Bank’s report, and we realised that Africa’s poverty problem might not be that easy to solve because it goes deeper than just lack of money.

As of 2022, 38% of Africans were living on less than $2.15 a day—that’s what the World Bank calls “extreme poverty.” If you’re looking for something to blame for this misfortune, the World Bank wants you to direct it at structural inequality that can be traced back to birthplace, ethnicity, gender, and even who your parents are.

As mentioned earlier, the report shows that Africa is handing down poverty from generation to generation. Children from the poorest 20% of households, for instance, are far less likely to finish school than their wealthier peers and because of this, their chances of getting decent jobs become extremely low, and the cycle repeats with the children they bring into the world. If you haven’t connected the dots yet, the big issue here is inequality which creates an endless loop of inequality— If you’re born poor, there’s a high chance that you’ll pass poverty down to your children.

The World Bank calls this inequality “market and institutional distortions.” In simple English, it means the game is rigged. Policies, markets, and institutions are designed to favour the rich, leaving the majority to fend for themselves in a system that actively works against them.

You put all that together, and you get a continent where economic growth cannot translate into poverty reduction. While Africa’s economy has seen periods of impressive growth, the benefits haven’t had a real impact on the lives of the people who need it most. Instead, the rich get richer, and the poor get... well, poorer.

Now this is where things get rough – if Africa doesn’t fix its inequality issue and it becomes home to 87% of the world’s poorest people, the continent, which is already struggling to get a seat at the table where global decisions are made will risk total exclusion. Poverty will force Africa to become more reliant on foreign aid (we’ll basically be waiting for giveaways from richer continents)

As helpful as foreign aid is, those deals favour donor countries. The narrative of helplessness will shape the global image of Africa as a charity case, not a partner for foreign investment.

The saddest part is that the world isn’t waiting for Africa to catch up, and the longer these structural inequalities exist, the closer we’ll get to becoming “Best in Poverty”.

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Nigerian students are saying toodles to the country and its economy

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) asked around and confirmed what we all kind of knew: young Nigerians are leaving the country through the student route, but here’s the gag—most of them are no longer coming back home.

The UK’s findings show that 76% of Nigerians who entered the UK through study visas in 2021 transitioned to non-study visas within three years. That’s a crazy jump from the 24% in 2019.

In Tuesday’s edition, we mentioned that 70% of Nigerian nationals are young people. Not that we can blame them but the UK is slowly becoming home to Nigeria’s best, brightest and most productive population.

What does this mean for Nigeria?

Short answer: nothing good. Long answer: a full-blown economic disadvantage.

This japa wave is draining the country of the talent it desperately needs to function. According to HR expert Kehinde Akintobi, skilled professionals—doctors, engineers, tech bros—are packing their bags and taking their talents to places where hard work is rewarded with more than “exposure” and “God bless you”.

Akintobi says the result of this is that Nigerian industries are now struggling to fill roles and recruitment costs are rising.

Then there’s the financial effect it's having on average Nigerians. Families are spending billions in foreign currency to pay tuition fees and living expenses for these students. Aviation expert Olumide Ohunayo pointed out that this trend has done some serious damage to Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves without bringing any returns. It’s like pouring water into a leaking bucket—you’re just watching it disappear.

But it’s not enough for the government to just complain…

The government has been more anti-japa in 2024 than ever. President Tinubu has made a mental note to remind young Nigerians not to leave the country every three market days, but that’s obviously falling on deaf ears. Sometime in January, the president swore that his administration would set up training programs to make up for the talents Nigeria is losing to japa. It’s been months since he made that promise and we’re still not sure how that’s going.

The relocation of youths to developed countries shows Nigeria’s deeper issues – lack of opportunities, brain-drain-inducing policies, and an economy that feels more like a survival game than a system built for growth. If things don’t change, the country is going to lose its biggest demographic and its most productive hands to immigration.

The Big Picks

South-South Senators Back Tax Reform Bills: Senators from the South-South geopolitical zone of Nigeria have expressed support for the Tax Reform Bills presented to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu.

LP Threatens Legal Action Against Reps Who Defected To APC: The Labour Party (LP) has threatened legal action against four members of the House of Representatives who defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from the LP.

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